The Gazette’s Marianne Goodland reports that Colorado’s budget outlook got a little better, thanks largely to stronger-than-expected individual income tax collections. Translation: Colorado taxpayers sent more money than the experts expected, and the Capitol still managed to look at the pile and mutter, “We may be broke.”
The sober witnesses here are state economists, legislative staff, and the governor’s budget office. The political comedy comes from what their numbers expose: revenue is up, the shortfall is still looming, TABOR refunds are getting squeezed, and the spending machine is still chewing through money like a raccoon in a feed shed.
The Bullet Point Brief
- Colorado’s general fund revenue came in stronger than expected, largely because individual income tax collections were higher. Normal working Coloradans paid up, and somehow the state’s wallet still has moths flying out of it.
- Legislative Council chief economist Greg Sobetski said the state is looking at $498 million more than expected in March, because the feared hit from the federal Trump budget bill was not as large on individual income taxes as first projected. Amazing what happens when reality interrupts a good blame-the-feds routine.
- The budget is technically balanced for 2025-26 and 2026-27, but only with a smaller 13% reserve instead of the previous 15%. That is not fiscal strength. That is loosening your belt after Thanksgiving and calling it a diet plan.
- Looking ahead to 2027-28, budget writers may have $873 million more to spend or save before inflation and caseload growth. Once those are included, they are staring at a $315 million general fund deficit, plus another $341 million to restore the reserve reduction. That is not a weather event. That is arithmetic with a hangover.
- House Bill 26-1419 is expected to reduce TABOR refund obligations by more than $300 million over two years, and lawmakers may also get another chance to ask voters to let the state keep more Healthy School Meals for All money. Because in Colorado politics, “temporary” money sticks around like glitter in church carpet.
My Bottom Line
Colorado does not have a revenue fairy problem. It has a political appetite problem.
This is the classic Capitol con. Taxpayers deliver more money than expected, largely through individual income taxes, and the ruling class still stands there with empty pockets, warning everyone about another shortfall. It is like watching a drunk cash his paycheck, wander out of the liquor store, and then blame the moon because rent is due.
Every time revenue rises, government calls it temporary. Every time spending rises, government calls it essential. Funny how that works. Your paycheck is never enough. Their program is never negotiable. Your family has to choose between groceries, gas, insurance, and the mortgage. They call their choices “caseload growth,” “commitments,” and “priorities,” which is Capitol-speak for “we spent it already, peasant.”
The economists are not the villains here. They are the folks holding the flashlight while the rest of us look into the crawlspace. The villains are the elected majority democrats who built a budget that apparently cannot survive even good news. Stronger collections should be a relief. Instead, they are just a slightly less catastrophic warning label slapped on a budgetary dumpster fire.
Colorado taxpayers keep feeding the beast. Then the beast burps, paws at the door, and the politicians hold a press conference about how hungry it is.
Source: The Gazette
Now It's Your Turn...