A year out from the 2026 home stretch, Ernest Luning maps the shape of Colorado’s open-governor free-for-all in Colorado Politics. The topline: first open race since Jared Polis, four Democrats filed, fifteen Republicans filed, and the handicappers already say the real ballgame is the Democratic primary. Unaffiliateds hover around half the electorate, Democrats hold a narrow edge over Republicans on the rolls, and Dems have swept every statewide race since 2018.
Luning also sketches out who looks serious and who does not. On the GOP side, Barbara Kirkmeyer will join a lane with Greg Lopez, Mark Baisley, Scott Bottoms, Jason Mikesell, and Joshua Griffin. Fundraising tells the story: most Republicans reported under 30k in the first half, while Phil Weiser banked roughly 2.9 million and Michael Bennet pulled in about 1.7 million after entering later. Translation: the Democratic field is flush, the Republican field is, well, passing the hat.
The Bullet Point Brief
- Open seat, tilted board. Nonpartisan forecasters aren’t calling this competitive. Win the Democratic primary, enjoy a victory lap in November. Vibes optional.
- Filing frenzy. Four Democrats in, fifteen Republicans in. Half of those are viable at best. The rest are auditioning for commentator gigs.
- Registration reality check. Dems hold only a slim edge over GOP, but unaffiliated voters make almost exactly 50 percent of the pie. The pie keeps voting blue statewide.
- Money talks, whispers, and shouts. Weiser and Bennet lit cigars with fundraising reports. GOP hopefuls scrounged for couch-cushion change.
- Colorado’s governor’s office is the big chair. High profile, high leverage, and incumbents rarely lose. Which is adorable news for anyone betting on a red wave.
My Bottom Line
As we march toward another gubernatorial, are we slow-walking into yet another Democrat, and will that Dem be better or worse than Governor Gaslight himself. The great Suburban Normie keeps hitting snooze while the state slides. Is this about policy performance or pure, undying Trump hatred, a reflexive vote against Republicans, and a sacrament-level devotion to unfettered abortion. Because if the metric is outcomes, look around. Affordability, crime, education, infrastructure. The ledger says decline, and the incumbent crew says “nothing to see here.”
Here’s the skinny, Normie casualties: as of June 1, 2025, the voter rolls in Colorado look like this – Unaffiliated voters: 2,011,247 (49.2%), Democrats: 1,039,477 (25.4%), Republicans: 940,271 (23.0%). Unaffiliateds – nearly half the electorate – are practically the golden ticket in this clown car gubernatorial race. But if the Great Suburban Normie stays glued to their lattes and virtue-signaling posts, they’ll keep re-electing Dems by default, no matter how much the state tanks under them.
Enter Senator Barb Kirkmeyer. She is my senator, a former fellow Weld County Commissioner, and yes, my friend. Also, the smartest person in the room (I tease her by saying, “Just ask her, she’ll tell you.”). It ain’t bragging if it’s true. The point is not the flex. The point is receipts. From the Joint Budget Committee trenches, Kirkmeyer knows the state budget better than the Governor and knows exactly where to trim fat without kneecapping classrooms, clinics, or county services. She is whip-smart and fearless. She gets labeled the RINO Queen for working across the aisle. Boo hoo. Adults pass bills. Babies post memes while shaking their fists at the proverbial clouds.
What does a Kirkmeyer campaign bring. Focus on Colorado’s real-world problems: transportation that actually moves, schools that teach instead of trend, local control that respects counties and cities, proper Human Services funding, and a fix for Medicaid that starts with raising provider rates so access is not a fairy tale. That is the Weld County pragmatist talking, not the Capitol hobbyist. And in case you missed Luning’s subtext, Republicans need a contender who looks viable, not just available. Kirkmeyer is one of the few Republicans already “positioning to go the distance,” and that alone separates her from the performative bench.
Colorado may be in a Dem-governor trance. Kirkmeyer can snap us out of it. She is a little acerbic. Good. We are past the point of playing nice while the house burns and the HOA mails you a fine for using a hose.
Barb Kirkmeyer gets my vote!!