I have been quiet for a few weeks. Sorry. Let’s make the first post I write after a brief hiatus my prediction of things to come. These are not my endorsements – don’t confuse my prognostication with that for which I hope. I’m just a realist, and here’s where I think we will be after Tuesday.
As of October 28, 2024, approximately 1.2 million Coloradans have cast their ballots in the 2024 election. This figure represents about 30% of the state’s registered voters. Turnout this year is outpacing 2022 midterm numbers, as expected for a presidential election year.
Donald J. Trump will be elected President of the United States. It will be a squeaker. Trust me, I still think this is within the margin of cheating for the Democrats. They’ll be “counting ballots” for days in places like Pennsylvania and Arizona. I don’t think we will definitively know on Tuesday night. There will be lawyers. Lawsuits. Protests and picketing in the streets. Wringing of hands and gnashing of corporate media capped teeth.
Ultimately, I think Trump wins. And the left won’t rest. The Russian Dosier will look like a children’s book. They will throw even more crap at him. But the industry that is mainstream, corporate media should thank him – their ratings will again be through the roof.
With Trump’s election, those who are Republicans and consider ourselves conservative will have to take a long hard look at who we are. Because Trump has forever shifted the paradigm, and the old coalitions are now shattered, the new, populist conservatism will reign – and that’s not a bad thing. More on that after the election – let’s see if I am right about Trump.
To the congressional seats…
District 1: Is Diana DeGette still fogging a mirror? She is and she will win.
District 2: Joe Neguse and I agree on nothing, but he is a gentleman and a darn likable man. He’s the democrat nominee in the 2nd CD so he will win. Easily.
Dustrict 3: Jeff Hurd brings conservative sanity back to the Western Slope, and despite Frisch’s millions, he’ll win.
District 4: Now having neatly unpacked her carpetbag, Lauren Boebert will successfully bring her bombast to the eastern plains. She’s loud, but I like her, and I think she’ll work hard to gain the trust of the skeptics on the plains.
District 5: Jeff Crank wins. I’ve never met the guy, but people who I think the world of think the world of Jeff, so that’s a good sign. The numbers in the 5th CD are forever in his favor, and I believe Jeff will settle in to be a pragmatic, effective legislator.
So that’s two Jeffs – Crank and Hurd. If the legislative thing doesn’t work out, I hope they pair up to produce some sort of product, because Crank and Hurd sounds like a delicious wine cooler, or the type of Bluegrass duo one would hear at a craft brewery on a Friday afternoon.
District 6: Jason Crowe is re-elected.
District 7: Brittany Petterson is re-elected.
District 8: I don’t know. I know. Throw rocks. What fun are predictions if I punt? This one is personal for me, and it is a stone-cold tossup. I like Gabe, I do, and he has run the best possible campaign. He’s struggled raising money, and Caraveo hasn’t. Gabe would be an outstanding legislator. But the Democratic machine runs at peak efficiency in the 8th CD. (It was probably the largest factor that drove me to drop out of the race. That, and the fact that I couldn’t raise a dime. And personally, I’m so much happier serving the folks at home here in Weld.)
Democrats are organized. Simply put: they want it more. Republicans can’t find their ass with both hands. Gabe has done a good job at putting his own machine in place. Will it be enough? Baby killing (Abortion, but let’s call it what it is) is big in the ‘burbs’, and they have hung that issue on him the same way they hung it on Barb. It may even be closer than Barb’s race in 2022 – she lost by 1,632 votes. I hope Gabe wins, but I just don’t know. I would appreciate your comments in the space below.
(Side note: When this election is over. When abortion is inscribed into the Colorado constitution and funded with taxpayer dollars. When abortion wins across the nation, I will have a candid, out-loud thought-channeling conversation about it on these pages. Because rather than yelling at each other, we need to try and understand one another. How unique would that be?)
To the State Legislature…
First, my general predictions – the Dems will maintain their super majority in the House, and they won’t get it in the Senate. Republicans need six seats to make the super majority in the house go away. I don’t think they’ll get them. For specifics, I’ll stick with what I know – and that’s Weld County – and I believe things are looking good for Weld.
House District 19: Dan Woog wins. That’s a plus one.
House District 33: William Lindstedt (who?!) wins. You don’t know him. He’s heard of Weld County, but thinks it’s icky. This house district is essentially Broomfield. There are 10 precincts in Weld County, and those are in and around Erie. Michael Martinez is the Republican running for that office. I don’t know him. I wish him well. In House District 33, 44% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 30% are Democrats, and 26% are Republicans. And the UAFs lean to the left. But appreciate Michael’s efforts.
House District 48: Carlos Barron wins. He doesn’t have a challenger, so he better. Regardless, I am excited about this bright young man’s entrance into public service.
House District 50: Ryan Gonzales wins. But it’ll be close – perhaps the closest state house race in Colorado. Ryan lost by 300-ish votes in 2022, and that was with a libertarian in the race who received 615 votes. There is no libertarian this time. Ryan wins, and that’s a plus one.
House District 63: Dusty Johnson wins, easy-peasy.
House District 64: Ryan Armagost wins, easy-peasy, and he should: Ryan has quietly (or not so quietly, his social media presence pisses off all the right people) become one of the most solid Republicans in the state.
House District 65: Lori Garcia-Sander wins, and that’s awesome. Lori is good people and will be a great Rep.
Senate District 13: Scott Bright wins. He has run a stellar campaign and is an even more stellar individual. We need more candidates like this guy. He’ll be a plus one, and I look forward to working with him on DHS issues.
Senate District 17: Sonya Jaquez Lewis wins, which is awful. She is somewhere left of Karl Marx. Tom VanLone is a good man, but I don’t know how you overcome an electorate that is 34.4% Dem, 16.7% Rep, and 47.3% UAF (who lean way left). You don’t, but Tom has brought up good points in his campaign, which hopefully makes the other side think. Which would be new for them.
Senate District 23: Barb Kirkmeyer wins, thankfully, because she is the most effective Republican in the state of Colorado. Period. Competent. Whip smart. Rock solid. Barb gets it done.
All the other stuff on the ballot…
Yes, there are three county commissioner races, but none of the three have an opponent, so I look forward to working with Perry Buck, Lynette Peppler, and Jason Maxey.
Amendment G, modify property tax exemption for veterans with disabilities. Passes. And it should.
Amendment H, judicial discipline procedures and confidentiality. It passes, but it won’t do a hill of beans worth of good. There is a corrupt, single-party-appointment system in the Colorado Courts, and nothing will change until we get a little diversity on the court, meaning appointments from both Democrats and Republicans.
Amendment I, constitutional bail exception for first-degree murder. Passes, but it could be close. This state leans far enough left that the sympathy for murderers could run high.
Amendment J, repealing the definition of marriage in the Constitution. Passes. This is Colo-RAD-OH.
Amendment K, modify constitutional election deadlines. Passes. But it takes 55% and it is somewhat confusing.
Amendment 79, constitutional right to abortion. Passes. Again, this is Colo-RAD-OH. And once baby killing (call it what it is) is cemented in the Colorado constitution, will Dems stop talking about it? Nope, because it’s the only issue they have, and it fund-raises like a mo-fo for them. Will the pro-life movement finally wake up and realize that government doesn’t change hearts, only God can (and that’s where the work should be focused)? That is my hope, and we will see.
Amendment 80, constitutional right to school choice. Fails, which is a crying shame. But this is Colo-RAD-OH, and the teacher union money is very strong here. They’re pro-choice, except for education, and then you shall ship your babies (if they survived Amendment 79) to the state sanctioned indoctrination facilities. But I digress…
Proposition JJ, retain additional sports betting tax revenue. Passes. Because government needs more money to create more government programs and employees, right?
Proposition KK, firearms and ammunition excise tax. Passes. Because this is Colo-RAD-OH and we’ve been fully Californicated. Shall not be infringed – phhhttt – what does that even mean, anyway?! Funneling money toward mental health is desperately needed in this state, but this is not the mechanism. But it’ll pass. Colo-RAD-OH.
Proposition 127, prohibit bobcat, lynx, and mountain lion hunting. Close. But I think (and pray) it fails. If the same Boulder/Denver-centric crowd that voted to put wolves back in Colo-RAD-OH to dine at the all you can eat livestock buffet goes unchallenged, it passes. But I think the right electorate woke up and got wise to their ways. It fails.
Proposition 128, parole eligibility for crimes of violence. Passes.
Proposition 129, establishing veterinary professional associates. Passes.
Proposition 130, funding for law enforcement. Passes. I hope. Getting a peek at the Guv’s budget yesterday shows that, if left to the legislature, this doesn’t stand a chance.
Proposition 131, establishing all candidate primary and ranked choice voting general elections. Passes. And it’s our own damn fault. If the parties had aspirational, sane, leadership that actually communicated vision and strategy, this thing wouldn’t have even come up. But we don’t. So we’ll get this.
That’s the extent of my crystal ball.
Call me out – agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts in the place below.
I’ll be headed to the Big R party at the Granary in Windsor to watch the reports come filing in. I think it’s going to be a good night. Of course, that’s what I thought in 2022.
